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ARBITRENDS Report: Phase 2, Summer 2006...
The numbers at left represent AQH shares for Persons 12+, Monday-Sunday, 6AM-12M, for the St. Louis metro rating area.

Phase 1 of the Summer 2006 survey period include the last two four-week "phases" of the Spring 2006 book and the first four weeks of the Summer book (known as May-June-July).

Phase II includes the final four-week phase of the Spring 2006 book and the first eight weeks of the Summer book (known as June-July-August).

The complete Summer Book, which began on June 29th and will conclude on September 20th, will roll out on October 18th.

The numbers are crunched to provide a "rolling average" that provides subscribers a once-a-month check of their work.

If, for example, a station experiences a significant rise or decline, the station can expect that the next trend report will be correspondingly up or down and can make adjustments. Using proprietary Arbitron information and formulae, they can even extrapolate an approximate future rating.

NOTE: 12+ numbers provide only an overview of the marketplace. All rating figures are history.

Corporate 12+ Scorecard: Clear Channel - 22.4; CBS - 16.6; Bonneville - 15.4; Emmis - 14.2; Radio One - 6.2.

Mike's analysis: Remember that this is 12+ -- The Arch's slump continues, down a full point from the Spring Book. KTRS flat from the Spring...this probably means no gains in other than baseball dayparts, and perhaps continuing losses if the night games went up at all. And look at the position ties!

From the Unknown AnalystTM:

There are two headlines coming off the June-July-August trend.

First, for everyone waiting for The Arch to return to earth following their Cinderella run of the past year and-a-half, the wait may be about over. And for everyone sad to see The River and its staff sent packing, you might get a little chuckle.

25-54 Persons, 6a-Midnight
Arch
KSHE
KEZK
WIL
KIHT
KLOU
KSD
KMJM
Z107
Y98
WFUN
The River
KFTK
KMOX
KTRS
KATZ-AM
The Point
KATZ-FM
WHHL-FM
KFNS

Analysis: The Arch's August extrapolated figure shows a continued, downward slide. It's across-the-board. Overall they're down two-and- a-half points. Mid-days, for example, are down almost half from June. Afternoons down over three points since June. One extrap does not a collapse make, but this is getting interesting. And don't forget, even with the slide this is still a very big station. Elsewhere in the top five, (all numbers compared to the last trend) KSHE down a point, KEZK flat, WIL up half a point, KIHT flat. And KFTK ties KMOX in the talk battle at 13th while both beat KTRS by one tenth of a point. The extrap for The River, meanwhile, shows a leap to 5.4 over the past three months. Steve & DC jump mightily to 7.7 from June to July. Similar situation for Vic Porcelli jumping to 6.5 while afternoons were up two points.

25-54 Persons, 6a-10a
KSHE
Arch
KIHT
WIL
Y98
KEZK
The River
KLOU
KSD
KMJM
KMOX
KFTK
Z107
WFUN
KATZ-AM
The Point
KATZ-FM
KFNS
WHHL-FM
KTRS

Analysis: Bob & Tom up half a point with The Arch down .7. JC Corcoran and John Ulett hold in third place. Steve & DC up 10th to 7th. Cornett holds in 8th place tie. 11th place KMOX edges out Smash & Allman in 12th, while KTRS is a distant twentieth, up from 23rd.

25-54 Persons, 10-3p
Arch
KEZK
KSHE
KIHT
KLOU
WIL
KSD
The River
Y98
Z107
KFTK
KMJM
KMOX
WFUN
The Point
KFNS
KATZ-FM
KATZ-AM
WHHL-FM
KTRS

Analysis: Arch down roughly two points but still ahead of second- place KEZK by three. KFTK edges out KMOX by two-tenths of a point, while (something I didn't think I'd be saying) KTRS' Milhaven and Kramer drop again, this time from 18th to 20th place. Their last three mid-day trends have gone 15th, 18th, 20th, but their extrap for August shows some upward movement.

25-54 Persons, 3p-7p
Arch
KSHE
WIL
KIHT
Z107
KEZK
KSD
KFTK
The Point
WFUN
Y98
KLOU
The River
KTRS
KMJM
KMOX
KATZ-FM
KATZ-AM
KFNS
WHHL-FM

Analysis: Arch and KSHE both down a point. Glover flat for 8th. The Point up one full point. The Bull up 10th to 7th. Y98 falls 8th to 11th. River flat. Frank Opinion up 17th to 14th. Paul Harris falls again, this time 15th to 16th.

25-54 Persons, 7p-Midnight
KTRS
WFUN
KMJM
Arch
KSHE
KEZK
KLOU
Z107
KATZ-FM
WHHL-FM
KFTK
KSD
WIL
KIHT
KATZ-AM
The Point
KMOX
Y98
River
KFUO-FM

Analysis: KTRS with baseball down a point but still first and four full points ahead of second-place WFUN. The Bull up 16th to 11th. KMOX without baseball falls again, this time 14th to 17th.

More numbers, analysis and 18 to 34s coming soon.


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